Recent Quotes from Analysts

陸東:
任何一個牛市末期，市場一定會出現瘋癲，但這個現象目前仍然未在香港出現。

從歷史的角度看，股市往往在市盈率達到二十二至二十五倍時才會見頂。股市見頂也將伴隨信貸擴張的情況，但目前沒有這方面的跡象可見。

（信報：二零零六年十一月十七日第二頁）

曹仁超：
二線股利之所在

根據資料，過去五十年[口係]本港投資優質二線股，乃致富之道。今天唔少藍籌股三十年前亦二線股，思捷環球（330）五年前仲係二線股，利豐（494）十年前一樣係二線股。美國Ibbotson Associates資料研究公司翻查美國過去八十年股票歷史（由1926年至今），如1926年投資一萬美元鰠十隻優質二線股身上，到今年價值係三千九百六十萬美元！最易賺錢鮋方法係眼見自己投資鮋二線股漸漸變成藍籌股。投資就係找尋邊一隻股票係明天鮋思捷或利豐？林治粛著作中話：投資二線股令佢鰠十三年內資本升值二十七倍，所以四十六歲便退休去享受人生！今天鮋[口係]軟、沃爾瑪，過去亦曾經係二線股；甚至通用電氣，一百年前亦係二線股！Google[口係]五年內由二線股變成互聯網巨無霸。可惜二線股大行好少推介（因為佣金收入有限，唔值得花心機），卻係投資者利之所在。


（信報：二零零六年十一月二十日 理财投资「曹仁超——投資者日記」）

Janice: 離家出走

Wine Spectator's Wine of the Year 2006

So happened I read from Wine Spectator's email alert and got to know that they have just released the Wine of the Year. It ignited my interest in going into the wine business, or I'd better say, to reinforce my faith in it. The Wine of the Year is the Casanova di Neri from Tuscany in Italy. It's not too expensive - US$70 per bottle. Maybe I'm not a learned wine drinker - 'cos it is totally unknown to me.

I understand that in Hong Kong, or most Asian countries, people buy wine like buying branded fashion, cosmetics but not really according to its quality. Same for wine. French ones should still be the most welcomed ones 'cos of its unchallenged reputation.

It might be true but having read the result of Paris Wine Tasting of 1976, also known as Judgement of Paris, its obviously not true. In that wine tasting competition, suprisingly, US wine won.

In this Wine Spectator's Wine of the Year 2006, there are 2 out of the top 5 are from France, whilst the rest of them are from Italy, US and Chile. To list the top 10, 3 are from France and 3 are from the US, 2 from Italy, 1 from Chile and 1 from Australia.

To my understanding, there're quite a lot of Aus/Chile/French wines available in Hong Kong. When compared, US wines are not as popular as it should be... haha... that's where the opportunity is!

Let's see how the Wine Spectator Wine of the Year goes:

Each year, Wine Spectator editors survey the wines we've reviewed over the past 12 months and select the most exciting for our Top 100.

In 2006, we reviewed nearly 13,500 wines from around the world in blind tastings. Nearly 3,000 of them earned outstanding ratings (90 points or higher on our 100-point scale). We then narrowed the list down based on four criteria: quality (represented by score); value (reflected by release price); availability (measured by case production or cases imported); and an X-factor we call excitement. But no equation determines the final selections: These choices reflect our editors' judgment and enthusiasm about the wines we tasted.

Thirteen countries are represented in our 2006 list, making this the most diverse group in the history of the Top 100, which debuted in 1988. The average score of the group is 93 points, while the average price is $49. We hope our selections stimulate discussion, and lead people to a deeper engagement with the world of wine.

From http://www.winespectator.com/Wine/Free/Top100-Main/0,4612,,00.html

Here's the list:

1. Casanova di Neri (Tuscany)- Brunello di Montacino Tenuta Nuova 2001 (97)
   
2. Quilceda Creek (Washington) - Cabernet Sauvignon Washington 2003 (95)
3. Château Léoville Barton (Bordeaux) - St Julien 2003 (98)
4. Concha y Toro (Chile) - Cabernet Sauvignon Puente Alto Don Melchor 2003 (96) (Just US$47!)
   
5. Domaine du Pégaü (Rhône) - Châteauneuf-du-Pape Cuvée Réservée 2003 (97)
6. Château Lafaurie-Peyraguey (Bordeaux) - Sauternes 2003 (97) (Just US$45!)
7. Kosta Browne (California) - Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2004 (96) (My comment: Most economic! US$38 only)
8. Kongsgaard (California) - Chardonnay Napa Valley 2003 (97) (Just US$45!)
9. Brancaia (Tuscany) - Toscana Il Blu 2004 (96)
10. Two Hands (Australia) - Shiraz Barossa Valley Bella's Garden 2004 (95)

Let's find out more great wine and enjoy! :)